By: SAKMONGKOL
(a) | PARLIAMENTARY SEAT (b) | 2004 SUPPORT FOR PAKATAN (% of voters) (c) | 2008 SUPPORT FOR PR (d) | Vote swing for PR (d/c) (e) | EXPECTED SUPPORT FOR PR (% of voters) (F) | PROJECTED WINNER (G) |
1 | SEGAMAT | 40 | 44 | 10 | 53 | PR |
2 | SEKIJANG | 27 | 30 | 11 | 39 | |
3 | LABIS | 34 | 40 | 18 | 49 | PR |
4 | PAGOH | 25 | 28 | 12 | 37 | |
5 | LEDANG | 33 | 40 | 21 | 49 | PR |
6 | BAKRI | 37 | 50 | 35 | 59 | PR |
7 | MUAR | 35 | 41 | 17 | 50 | PR |
8 | PARIT SULONG | 30 | 32 | 7 | 41 | |
9 | AIR HITAM | 22 | 23 | 5 | 32 | |
10 | SRI GADING | 26 | 30 | 15 | 39 | |
11 | BATU PAHAT | 30 | 37 | 23 | 46 | PR |
12 | SINPANG RENGAM | 29 | 33 | 14 | 42 | |
13 | KLUANG | 36 | 44 | 22 | 53 | PR |
14 | SEMBRONG | 22 | 26 | 18 | 35 | |
15 | MERSING | 22 | 23 | 5 | 31 | |
16 | TENGGARA | 18 | 20 | 11 | 29 | |
17 | KOTA TINGGI | 14 | 14 | 0 | - | |
18 | PENGERANG | - | - | - | - | |
19 | TEBRAU | 27 | 33 | 22 | 41 | |
20 | PASIR GUDANG | 27 | 33 | 22 | 42 | |
21 | JOHOR BHARU | 23 | 28 | 22 | 37 | |
22 | PULAI | 26 | 31 | 19 | 40 | |
23 | GELANG PATAH | 31 | 41 | 32 | 50 | PR |
24 | KULAI | 35 | 38 | 9 | 47 | PR |
25 | PONTIAN | 24 | 26 | 8 | 35 | |
26 | TANJUNG PIAI | 26 | 31 | 19 | 40 |
My own estimates indicate that PR can win outright 9 parliamentary seats. The seats currently held by UMNO/BN but can be dicey include 6 more seats of:-
1. TANJUNG PIAI
2. GELANG PATANG
3. PULAI
4. PASIR GUDANG TEBRAU
5. SIMPANG RENGGAN
6. PARIT SULONG
Really then, the number of parliamentary seats that could end with PR will be between 9 to 15 seats.
What does that make Johor? It is no longer the bastion of UMNO.
What about Johor Bharu which has a sizeable Chinese population who could prove to be a boon to PR? It depends on who is the UMNO candidate. If Shahrir Samad chooses to retire, then JB will switch to PR. Shahrir can only be persuaded to stand only if the UMNO people stokes his contempt for Anwar Ibrahim. He himself is not that confident. He has said privately that most of the faces he sees in JB are not familiar to him.
The other seat which I am interested to see is Pulai. It’s currently held by the Chairman of UDA, Nurjazlan Mohamad Rahmat. A decent fellow but has recently been the victim of UMNO’s habit of practising infanticide. It kills off its young talent. When Jazlan came up with a strategy of raising money for UDA with the redevelopment of the PUdu Jail area, he became a victim to the ravenous appetite of UMNO warlords ever on the lookout of using government to make tons of money.
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