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Saturday, August 4, 2012

Not all Joy in Johor ***

By: SAKMONGKOL

(a)

PARLIAMENTARY SEAT

(b)

2004 SUPPORT

FOR PAKATAN

(% of voters)

(c)

2008 SUPPORT FOR PR
(% of voters)

(d)

Vote swing for PR

(d/c)

(e)

EXPECTED SUPPORT FOR PR

(% of voters)

(F)

PROJECTED WINNER

(G)

1

SEGAMAT

40

44

10

53

PR

2

SEKIJANG

27

30

11

39

 

3

LABIS

34

40

18

49

PR

4

PAGOH

25

28

12

37

 

5

LEDANG

33

40

21

49

PR

6

BAKRI

37

50

35

59

PR

7

MUAR

35

41

17

50

PR

8

PARIT SULONG

30

32

7

41

 

9

AIR HITAM

22

23

5

32

 

10

SRI GADING

26

30

15

39

 

11

BATU PAHAT

30

37

23

46

PR

12

SINPANG RENGAM

29

33

14

42

 

13

KLUANG

36

44

22

53

PR

14

SEMBRONG

22

26

18

35

 

15

MERSING

22

23

5

31

 

16

TENGGARA

18

20

11

29

 

17

KOTA TINGGI

14

14

0

-

 

18

PENGERANG

-

-

-

-

 

19

TEBRAU

27

33

22

41

 

20

PASIR GUDANG

27

33

22

42

 

21

JOHOR BHARU

23

28

22

37

 

22

PULAI

26

31

19

40

 

23

GELANG PATAH

31

41

32

50

PR

24

KULAI

35

38

9

47

PR

25

PONTIAN

24

26

8

35

 

26

TANJUNG PIAI

26

31

19

40

 
  

My own estimates indicate that PR can win outright 9 parliamentary seats. The seats currently held by UMNO/BN but can be dicey include 6 more seats of:-

1. TANJUNG PIAI
2. GELANG PATANG
3. PULAI
4. PASIR GUDANG TEBRAU
5. SIMPANG RENGGAN
6. PARIT SULONG


Really then, the number of parliamentary seats that could end with PR will be between 9 to 15 seats.
What does that make Johor? It is no longer the bastion of UMNO.


What about Johor Bharu which has a sizeable Chinese population who could prove to be a boon to PR? It depends on who is the UMNO candidate. If Shahrir Samad chooses to retire, then JB will switch to PR. Shahrir can only be persuaded to stand only if the UMNO people stokes his contempt for Anwar Ibrahim. He himself is not that confident. He has said privately that most of the faces he sees in JB are not familiar to him.

The other seat which I am interested to see is Pulai. It’s currently held by the Chairman of UDA, Nurjazlan Mohamad Rahmat. A decent fellow but has recently been the victim of UMNO’s habit of practising infanticide. It kills off its young talent. When Jazlan came up with a strategy of raising money for UDA with the redevelopment of the PUdu Jail area, he became a victim to the ravenous appetite of UMNO warlords ever on the lookout of using government to make tons of money.

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